Saturday, January 4, 2014

The Science of Demand (22) - Unofficial Translation of Steven Cheung's 经济解释 - 科学说需求


In general, a measure is required in inferring or explaining behavior or phenomena. Inferring that one would turn right instead of left on a crossroads can be due to it being faster, safer, or more comfortable, etc. These are all measures. Not many options are required to measure, though two are needed at the very least. It is a measure in saying that A is bigger than B. And if I say under certain circumstances one will pick a big one instead of a small one, this is inference.

To measure is to rank: in order of size, in order of quantity, in order of weight, etc. Supposing there are too many options for ranking, and if it is still not enough after exhausting A, B, C, D …, then we will use numbers. Numbers are infinite. The definition of measure is to use numbers to arbitrarily rank. Yet number itself has no content. When I say 17, 29, you would have no idea what I am talking about. But if I say 29 pounds you would know that I am referring to the weight of an object, and that 29 pounds is heavier than 17 pounds.

To describe a selfish person maximizing his self-interest, we can use numbers to rank his options. If I say under certain circumstances, this person will choose 29 instead of 17, you will then ask: what does 29 or 17 stand for?

The problem lies exactly here. I have to use numbers to rank your options, yet number itself has no content. What can we do? I could say the numbers you have chosen represent pounds, but “pound” also refers to weight which may cause confusion. Somehow a name has to be given to these numerically-ranked options. What can we do? I therefore close my eyes, casually open an English dictionary, put my finger down and then open my eyes, the word is utility.

In the mid-twentieth century, after the cultivation of numerous scholars over more than a century, the only creditable definition of utility is this simple: utility is a numerical assignment in ranking options. It represents neither happiness, nor enjoyment, nor welfare. Utility represents options ranking, and since there are innumerable options, we arbitrarily use numbers and proclaim that bigger numbers are preferable to smaller ones, or smaller numbers are preferable to bigger ones, but not that big or small numbers are equally preferable.

“Utility” is an arbitrary numerical assignment in ranking options. Whether the number is big or small is not critical. Of essence is the sequence: if we say the utility of a big number is preferable to that of a small one, we cannot reverse that halfway and say a smaller number is more preferable. This is a requisite of logic.

In general, there are three usages of number, out of which two are for measurement. The non-measure usage of number is for identification. For instance, when you go horse racing, on each horse is a number like number 7, number 3, etc. These numbers do not indicate big or small, fast or slow, but are for identification purposes only. If you bet on horse number 7 and that particular horse wins, you can go to collect your winning.

The other two usages of number are in relation to measure. Two types of measure exist since there are two kinds of rankings in numerical measure. One kind of ranking that can be added together is called cardinal measure; the other kind of numbers that can only be ranked but not added together is called ordinal measure.

A fish weighs 2 pounds and a chicken weighs 3 pounds, the two added together is 5 pounds. If you are in vain looking for an 8-foot long rope, then adding up a 3-foot rope with a 5-foot one gives you 8 feet. Foot is therefore cardinal. All cardinal measures can be linearly transformed. For instance, Fahrenheit is a cardinal measure, so is Celsius. By knowing the degree in Fahrenheit, we can safely use an equation to find out the exact degree in Celsius. Pound and kilogram, yard and meter, can all be linearly transformed.

A problem in measuring utility is that utilities cannot necessarily be summed. The utility number of one pound of bread is 4 while the utility number of one ounce of butter is also 4, when both of them are eaten, the utility number will be greater than 8. The utility number of a cup of coffee is 4 while the utility number of a cup of tea is also 4, but the utility number per cup, when both of them are drunk, will be less than 4. When dealing with complements (like bread and butter) or substitutes (like coffee and tea), there is no easy solution to the so-called additive utility issue.

Nonetheless, economists have spent substantial effort on devising certain solution to cardinally measure utility. The most remarkable is the book “Theory of Games and Economic Behavior” written by twentieth century’s mathematics guru, John von Neumann (1903 – 1957), and economist, Oskar Morgenstern (1902 – 1977). In the second edition (1946) of this popular book, the authors pointed out that in the presence of risks, utility could be cardinally measured. However, four assumptions are required for such measurement, out of which two are problematic.


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